The images below show seasonal outlooks for February to April 2019, for temperature and precipitation.
Temperature FMA 2019 Outlook:
For the February March April 2019 (FMA19) period, there is probability of 50% or more that temperatures will be above normal in the Alaskan region (red areas in Figure 1) and over most of the continental Canadian Arctic. Canadian Archipelago has similar probability expectations for temperature, around 50% or more for the next FMA19 season.
Over the eastern part of the Russian continental Arctic, the forecast was not conclusive (white areas on the Fig. 1). This means that the forecasting system predicts the same probabilities for the three possible outcomes, below, above or near normal. Western Russian Arctic has at least 40% probability for an above normal FMA19.
Over the European continental Arctic, the highest probability that the temperature will be above normal (50% or more) is seen over Island. There is also at least 40% probability for an above normal FMA19 over some isolated regions of Norway, Finland and Sweden. For other regions of the continental European Arctic, the forecasting system was not conclusive and therefore all possible temperature outcomes are possible.
Precipitation FMA 2019 Outlook:
Over the central and western regions of the Alaskan Arctic, the forecasting system was not decisive about the precipitation outcome and therefore all three-probability categories have equal chances to occur over these regions (Fig. 2). Conversely, southern and Northern parts of the Alaska have at least 40% or more probability to have above normal precipitation in the next FMA19 season. Canadian Arctic and Canadian Archipelago have also 40% or more probability to receive above normal precipitation values in the next season.
Over most of the Russian continental Arctic, the forecasting system was not decisive for the precipitation outcome, except in some isolated regions such as far western Arctic and near Laptev Sea. Over these two regions, the forecasting system predicts at least 40% or more probability for an above and below normal precipitation respectively.
European Arctic has probabilities of 50% or more for below normal precipitation over Island and western central Norway. Northern Norway, Sweden and Finland have expectations for a below normal precipitation with a probability of 40% or more. Other parts of the European Arctic have equal chances for precipitation outcome, which means that the forecasting system was not decisive over these regions.