Outlook for November 2022-January 2023

The images below show seasonal outlooks for November 2022 to January 2023, for temperature, precipitation and sea ice. More details can be found in the Temperature, Precipitation, SST and SWE Verification and Seasonal Outlooks and the Sea-Ice Verification and Seasonal Outlooks presentations.

Temperature November, December and January 2022/2023 Outlook

For the November-December-January 2022/23 (NDJ22/23) period, there is a probability of 40% or more that temperatures will be above normal in all regions across the Arctic. The highest probabilities for an above normal summer (60-70% or more) are in the eastern and western Siberian regions and in the northern parts of the eastern Canada. Alaskan and western Canada region is expecting above normal temperatures with probabilities of at least 40%. Northern, coastal, portions of this region are expecting somewhat higher probabilities, 50% or more, for an above normal NDJ. Multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast is indecisive (white color on the map) over the southern parts of Alaska-western Canada. For the eastern Nordic region, MME forecast is showing above normal probabilities of 60-70% or higher, in the north-eastern and southern parts of the region, while these probabilities are somewhat lower (40% or more) in the central and western parts of the region. Continental parts of the western Nordic region have expectation of at least 50% or higher for an above average summer (i.e. Scandinavian Peninsula). Somewhat higher probabilities of 60% and higher are expected in the northeastern, coastal, portions of the region. Chukchi and Bering region has a probability of at least 50% for an above normal winter onset. Western parts of this region have even more chance (60-70%) for an above normal NDJ.

temperature outlook november 2022 to january 2023

Precipitation November, December and January 2022/2023 Outlook

Over the largest part of the Arctic region, there are expectancies for an above normal precipitation for the first part of the winter NDJ 22/23. These probabilities are rather moderate (40% or more) for most of the Arctic domains with an exception of the northern, coastal, parts of the western and eastern Siberian region where we have probability expectancies of 50-60% or more. Southern and southwestern parts of eastern and western Nordic regions, respectively, have equal chance expectancies for precipitation for the first part of this winter. Other areas, over these two domains, are expecting above normal precipitation with probabilities of 40% or more for this NDJ 22/23.

precipitation outlook november 2022 to january 2023

Outlook for Winter sea ice freeze-up and March sea ice extent 2023

Sea ice freeze-up is defined as the first day in a 10-day interval where ice concentration rises above 50% in a region. The outlook for winter freeze-up (shown in the figure to the left below), displays the sea ice freeze-up anomaly from CanSIPSv2 based on the nine-year climatological period from 2013-2021. The qualitative 3-category (high, moderate, low) confidence in the forecast based on the historical model skill, is shown in figure to the right. A later than normal freeze-up (red areas) is forecasted for the Beaufort, Kara and Laptev Seas. A near normal freeze-up is forecast for the Chukchi, Barents, Bering, and Greenland seas, in addition to the Sea of Okhotsk and Hudson Bay. An earlier than normal freeze-up (blue areas) is forecast for the Labrador and East Siberian seas, and in Baffin Bay.

sea ice outlook spring 2022

Maximum sea ice extent is achieved each year during the month of March in the northern hemisphere. The forecast for March 2023 maximum sea ice extent is presented in the figure to the left below, the March 2023 ice concentration anomaly from 2013-2021 is shown in the middle, while the forecast skill is shown to the right. Below normal ice extent in March 2023 is forecast for the Greenland and Barents seas, above normal for the Labrador Sea, and near normal ice cover for the Sea of Okhotsk, Bering Sea and Northern Baltic Sea.

sea ice concentration outlook for September 2022