Seasonal outlook for November-January 2021-22

The images below show seasonal outlooks for November 2021 to January 2022, for temperature and precipitation, and for Fall Freeze-up and March maximum sea ice extent. More details can be found in the Seasonal outlook for November-December-January 2021-22 presentation and the Sea‐Ice Outlook for Winter 2021/22 presentation.

 

Temperature NDJ 2021-22 Outlook

The figure below shows multi-model ensemble probability forecast for surface temperature for November 2021, December 2021, and January 2022 (NDJ). Source: www.wmolc.org.

Surface air temperatures during winter 2021 are forecast to be above normal across the majority of the Arctic regions (yellow, orange and red areas) with the exception of Alaska and Western Canada where the there is no agreement in model forecasts (white areas). Below normal temperatures with moderate confidence (blue areas) is forecast for the North Pacific and coastal areas. The confidence of the forecast is low over Alaska and Western Canada (white and light blue areas). The confidence in the forecast is high over Central/Eastern Canada, and over Eastern Siberia (red areas) and moderate over the Eastern/Western Nordic, Western Siberia, Central Arctic and Chukchi and Bering Seas (yellow and orange areas).

 

temperature outlook november december jaunary 2021-22

 

Precipitation NDJ 2021-22 Outlook

The figure below shows multi-model ensemble probability forecast for precipitation for the NDJ 2021-22 period. Source: www.wmolc.org.

Precipitation during winter 2021-2022 is forecast to be above normal over the majority of the Arctic region. Forecast confidence is generally low (light green areas). Exceptions are large areas in the Western and Eastern Nordic regions where no agreement between models (white areas ) yields no forecast for precipitation. Below normal precipitation with low confidence (light orange areas) is forecast for the northern Bering Sea and small regions in the Southern Chukchi Sea.

 

precipitation outlook november december jaunary 2021-22

 

Outlook for fall Freeze-up 2021 and March 2022 Maximum Sea Ice Extent

Sea-ice freeze-up is defined as the date where ice concentration exceeds 50% in a region. The outlook for fall freeze-up shown in the figure below displays the sea-ice freeze-up anomaly from CanSIPSv2 based on the nine-year climatological period from 2012-2020. The qualitative 3-category (high, moderate, low) confidence in the forecast is based on the historical model skill. Only regions where the model has historical skill are included in the outlook.

 

sea ice outlook fall 2021

Maximum sea ice extent normally occurs during the month of March in the northern hemisphere. The figure below shows the probability of sea ice presence at concentrations greater than 15% and the forecast mean ice extent (black) along with the 2013-2021 mean extent (red). The ice extent is forecast to be near normal with the exception of below normal ice extent in the south Labrador Sea and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

 

sea ice extent outlook march 2022