Arctic Regional Climate Centre Network

For the November-December-January 2023/24 period, there is a probability of 50% or more that temperatures will be above normal in all regions across the Arctic. The highest probabilities for an above normal summer (70-80% or more) are in the eastern Canadian Arctic, coastal parts of the eastern Nordic regions and over the two Siberian regions, eastern and western.

For the November-December-January 2023/24 period over the largest part of the Arctic region, there are expectances for an above normal precipitation. These probabilities are rather moderate (40% or more) for most of the Arctic domains with an exception for the western and eastern Siberian regions where there are probability expectancies of 50-60% or more.

For the upcoming winter 2023/2024 season, an earlier than normal freeze-up is forecasted for the Barents, Greenland, northern part of Labrador and parts of the Okhotsk Seas. A near normal freeze-up is forecasted for Baffin Bay, Bering and Chukchi Seas, Hudson Bay, eastern part of Kara Sea and southern part of Labrador Sea. A later than normal freeze-up is forecasted for the southern part of the Beaufort Sea. The winter maximum ice extent is expected to be below normal for the Bering and Labrador Seas; near normal for the Barents, Greenland and Okhotsk Seas and above normal in the north Baltic. For the sea ice outlook, ‘normal’ is the 2014-2022 period.