The images below show seasonal outlooks for June to August 2022, for temperature, precipitation and sea ice. More details can be found in the Temperature, Precipitation, SST and SWE Verification and Seasonal Outlooks and the Sea-Ice Verification and Seasonal Outlooks presentations.
Temperature June, July and August 2022 Outlook
For the June-July-August 2022 (JJA22) period, there is a probability of 40% or more that temperatures will be above normal in all regions across the Arctic (orange and red areas in the figure below). The highest probabilities for an above normal summer (60-70% or more) are in the Eastern and Western Siberian regions and in southern parts of the Chukchi-Bering region (dark red areas). The latter region is furthermore expecting above normal probabilities of 50% or more in its central and northern parts. Central and eastern parts of the Eastern Canadian Arctic are also expecting high probabilities of more than 60% for above normal temperatures this summer. The Alaskan and Western Canada region is expecting above normal temperatures with probabilities of at least 40%, coastal and eastern parts of this region are expecting somewhat higher probabilities, 50% or more, for an above normal summer. For the Eastern Nordic region, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecast is showing above normal probabilities of 60-70% or higher, in the western parts of the region, while these probabilities are somewhat lower (50% or more) in the southern and eastern parts of the region. Below normal temperatures in Greenland and Labrador seas are a reflection of the MME sea-surface temperature forecast (blue areas). Continental parts of the Western Nordic region have expectation of at least 40% or higher for an above average summer (i.e. Scandinavian Peninsula). Somewhat higher probabilities of 50% and higher are expected in the eastern and southern parts of the region.
Precipitation June, July and August 2022 Outlook
Over the largest part of the Arctic Circle, there are equal chance expectancies for precipitation this summer (white, light green and light orange areas in the figure below). This means that the MME forecast is not decisive in any of the three probability categories. The indecisive forecast for this summer’s precipitation is showing in the eastern and western Siberian regions, most of the Nordic regions with an exception of the southern parts of these two regions where low probabilities (40% or more) for below normal precipitation are expected. Eastern Canada is also expecting equal precipitation chances with an exception of the Canadian archipelago where low probabilities of above normal precipitation are forecasted (light green areas). Chukchi and Bering region is expecting above normal precipitation for JJA22. Low probabilities of 40% or higher are expected over this region. Alaska and Western Canada are divided to above normal expectancies on the western side (40% or higher), while the southeastern and eastern parts are expecting below normal precipitation (also 40% or higher) this JJA22 (light orange areas).
Outlook for sea ice spring break-up and September sea ice extent 2022
Sea ice break-up is defined as the first day in a 10-day interval where ice concentration falls below 50% in a region. The outlook for spring break-up, shown in the figure to the left below, displays the sea ice break-up anomaly from CanSIPSv2 based on the nine-year climatological period from 2012-2020. The qualitative 3-category (high, moderate, low) confidence in the forecast is based on the historical model skill (figure to the right below). A later than normal break-up (blue areas) is forecasted for the Barents, Beaufort, Greenland and Labrador Seas. A near normal break-up is forecast for Baffin Bay, Hudson Bay and the Chukchi Sea. An earlier than normal break-up is forecast for the Canadian Archipelago and the Kara and Laptev seas.
Minimum sea ice extent is achieved each year during the month of September in the northern hemisphere. The forecast for September 2022 minimum sea ice concentration is presented in the figure to the left below, the September 2022 ice concentration anomaly from 2013-2021 is shown in the middel, while the forecast confidence is shown to the right. The forecast for most of the Arctic is a near normal September ice extent and a below normal ice extent is forecast for the Laptev and Kara Seas.